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BILL HARRISON
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Articles Posted: 113; Links Seeded: 1155
Member Since: 4/2007
Member Since: 4/2007
38 Votes
68 Comments
The 'Bradley effect' in 2008
News Type: Opinion — Seeded on Thu Oct 2, 2008 12:23 PM EDT
Article Source: The L.A. Timesadvertisement
"When someone admits, 'I can't vote for him because he's not of my ethnic group,' that's progress, because [candidates] know how to handle it," he said. "And more important, they know how to poll for it."
Are we better off with this devil we know rather than a devil we don't?
I called up Charles Henry, who teaches African American studies at UC Berkeley. In 1983, he was the first to measure the Bradley effect. Yes, perceptions of race are changing, but still, for Obama now, as for Tom Bradley then, Henry calculates that it will take "a double-digit lead to feel confident come election day."
It grieves me to say so, but he may be right. Good polls don't change bad attitudes. If America 2008 hasn't changed much from California 1982, by next year pundits will be calling it the "Obama effect."
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{"commentId":3260599,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
I have written about this before in the context of Doug Wilder's winning gubernatorial bid in VA twenty years ago. I do think, however, that the country has come a long way since then and any such lingering effect will be mitigated this time around by new voter registrations favoring Obama although whether it's enough to outweigh any "Bradley-Wilder" effect won't be known until election day.
{"commentId":3260599,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
- 11 votes
#1 - Thu Oct 2, 2008 12:28 PM EDT{"commentId":3261189,"authorDomain":"douglasq"}
See, I don't buy the so-called "Bradley Effect." At least, not on the national stage. I remember the profound disbelief many felt when Dubya won re-election in '04. The majority of the exit polls and the tracking polls leading up to election day had Kerry in the lead. Race was not an issue in that election.
We may again see the same kind of fraud in this election as was employed by the GOP in 2000 and 2004. I just don't want the "Bradley Effect" to be used to explain it away.
{"commentId":3261189,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"douglasq"}
- 11 votes
{"commentId":3261242,"authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
I'm not really sure if it matters. If people don't vote for him, it will be said "it was because he was black". This race has shown almost a reverse discrimination, against anyone who is voting on the issues. If you don't like his politics, it's because you don't like his color. If Obama loses this election, the real reasons won't matter, everyone will say "it was because he was black".
{"commentId":3261242,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
- 10 votes
{"commentId":3261485,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
Quite correct. And despite the constant bleatings of the left based mostly on the mutterings of the moonbat blogosphere most of the demonstrated vote fraud in this country has occurred in connection with Democratically-aligned groups like ACORN.
{"commentId":3261485,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
- 12 votes
{"commentId":3262084,"authorDomain":"douglasq"}
If people don't vote for him, it will be said "it was because he was black".
See? You are already doing it.
{"commentId":3262084,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"douglasq"}
- 7 votes
{"commentId":3262300,"authorDomain":"taytaytaygen"}
Ok the problem with your argument is not that sometimes people claim racism when there is none in that particular case. It's that the people out there saying they won't vote for him because he's black well news flash that is racism. When people try to drag his middle name into an argument like it's somehow wrong that's racism. It's not racism just to not vote for him because you disagree. However the reason people scream racism is because so often the argument is not about where he stands on the issues it's on some other thing about him. There are clearly racist issues in this campaign it's not all justified but it often times is.
Plus I have to add there is no such thing as reverse racism. Racist is racist it doesn't matter what color you are. If a white guy hates a black guy because he's black it's racism, if a black guy hates a white guy because he's white it's racism. If you call it reverse racism now what are you going to call it when you are the minority just regular racism. Hate is hate.
{"commentId":3262300,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"taytaytaygen"}
- 6 votes
{"commentId":3262369,"authorDomain":"JoulesBeef"}
do me a favor if you will .. google ont he vine posts abotu race.. racism and obama.. youw ill see they all come from conservatvies.
no onesays if you dont vote for obama you a re a racist.. that is BS crap your base is bringing up to rile up white folk. there has ben a poll in which peopel stated of their own free will that they will not vote for obama cuase he is black.. and you conservatvies cry all over the vine people are callign your racists if you dotn vote for obama.. and that like much of the manufactured outrage ofrom the right.. it pure unadulterated bull @!$%#.
{"commentId":3262369,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"JoulesBeef"}
- 6 votes
{"commentId":3262885,"authorDomain":"Tanilan"}
I want to know if Obama would be getting this much attention if he were White? I mean seriously, it is a big issue to a lot of Americans and that just shouldn't be so in 2008!
{"commentId":3262885,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"Tanilan"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":3262917,"authorDomain":"juno"}
Joules:
What did Dean mean when he talked about the ah, white, ah, republican party?
The fact is, many are playing that game. Even your leaders.
{"commentId":3262917,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"juno"}
- 9 votes
{"commentId":3263053,"authorDomain":"newsguru"}
In the Democratic primaries, over 20% admitted that race had a "major" factor in their decision.No one needs to make up racism. And as previously stated, it seems only conservatives believe those not voting for Obama are racist. That's simply ignorant.
Some quotes would be helpful with such an assinine assertion.
I think one is equally ignorant, in the face of blatant facts, to assume there aren't racists in both democrat and republican parties.
The truth is many people who are not voting for Obama are not for very real ideological reasons. But only the naive believe there are not many that are avoid him for reasons of race.
20 Percent of West Virginia Democratic Voters are Admitted Racists
Simply do the math, that's a lot of people.
It may not be as high in every state, but those are staggering numbers to go up against in any regard.
Henry calculates that it will take "a double-digit lead to feel confident come election day."
Thank goodness every state is not like W. Virginia.
{"commentId":3263053,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"newsguru"}
- 7 votes
{"commentId":3263153,"authorDomain":"bcmadden1025"}
I don't think that what you are saying is necessarily so. There are some that would say it was because he was black, but not all. I think the article was clear about analyzing the results of post election polls against pre-election polls.
In other words, assume during all pre-election polling, XYZ County consistently voted Obama ahead with at least a 5 point lead and a 3.0 margin of error. Now let's say Obama loses the County by 3 points. If nothing else is different (no breaking news about the war or the economy), that means the polls were either flat out wrong, or that people lied to the pollsters. So, why would people lie?
People lying to the pollsters is not necessarily a racial thing. It can also be a partisan thing, or a class thing, or a gender thing, or even a religious thing. There are many people that don't like to disclose who they are voting for or why. To that end, I agree that there are people that won't vote for a black person and might tell pollsters otherwise - so as not to be labeled racist. However, just because many people polled admit that they will take race into account - doesn't mean they won't vote for a black candidate, just that they will include it amongst many considerations.
I think the pollsters of today, while still considered a cute sideshow (by me at least), are much better at all of these variables. They are better equipped to know what is drawing people to the polls, like the gun issue mentioned in the Bradley case.
The telling issue this time, if Obama loses, will be:
1. What were the polls going into election day?
2. What were the parties respective turn outs for the election?
3. How did the Pres ticket correspond with the vote counts down the ticket?
4. What are the racial, age and gender mixes of the communities where any big discrepancies occurred?
{"commentId":3263153,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"bcmadden1025"}
- 2 votes
{"commentId":3263228,"authorDomain":"juno"}
News:
Point of clarification. Most understand that racism plays a role in our lives in America, in every direction.
Also, I'd like to see the pro-BO support numbers based on race. Do you have those to hand, maybe? For instance, do they cancel one another out? Or leave enough of a gap to sway this one way or another.
{"commentId":3263228,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"juno"}
- 6 votes
{"commentId":3266932,"authorDomain":"AlexandraJolicoeur"}
Joules,
re: 1.6
your base is bringing up to rile up white folk. there has ben a poll in which peopel stated of their own free will that they will not vote for obama cuase he is black
I would argue that those who have "stated of their own free will" that they will not vote for Obama based on the color of his skin are not representative of conservative philosophy, the republican party, or the american populous as a whole. Please don't misunderstand me, I'm not saying racism doesn't exist or that it's no longer a problem, I'm just saying to make a blanket assumption is wrong, and I think it does your intellect a disservice.
{"commentId":3266932,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"AlexandraJolicoeur"}
- 6 votes
{"commentId":3261307,"authorDomain":"faminchin"}
You should check out what they are doing here in Ohio. It's unreal.......I am watching in disbelief:
http://faminchin.newsvine.com/_news/2008/10/02/1946552-voter-fraud-in-ohio-you-decide
{"commentId":3261307,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"faminchin"}
- 4 votes
#2 - Thu Oct 2, 2008 1:06 PM EDT{"commentId":3262471,"authorDomain":"JoulesBeef"}
oh my gawd.. you mean they are following the law .. the one that republicians passed.
one that the supreme court upheld.
and oh my.. they are helping the homeless get to the polls.
and plus they get to vote anonymously.. which means they dotn have to vote for obama but hey when your accusing someoen of fraud.. why do facts mattter huh?
the must be cheating cuase we say so.
despite it woudl take cus laods of homeless peopel and despite not every state has a voter id law.. you still ahve to prove who you are.. to get registered... and then we have goprs ine very state.. that go through the voter rolls lookign for duploicates and such.
{"commentId":3262471,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"JoulesBeef"}
- 5 votes
{"commentId":3263155,"authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
Joules
You mean the Ohio law that says you must be registered to vote 30 days before the election? The one that is supposed to give an opportunity for a voters eligibility to be validated? That law?
{"commentId":3263155,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
- 9 votes
{"commentId":3263383,"authorDomain":"keavinkirby"}
The election is still more than 30 days away guys
{"commentId":3263383,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"keavinkirby"}
{"commentId":3263486,"authorDomain":"canis"}
{"commentId":3263486,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"canis"}
- 4 votes
{"commentId":3264191,"authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
Keav,
I know that, but those voters are registering and voting on the same day. And the esteemed Sec. of State is not keeping those ballots separated so that they can be validated. THAT is what the problem is.
{"commentId":3264191,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
- 6 votes
{"commentId":3267011,"authorDomain":"AlexandraJolicoeur"}
the concern with this last-minute effort to get the homeless to the polls is, are these people truly informed and concerned, or are they doing so because they're being paid. Now, I know some would never think the democrats would stoop so low, but I do not have that faith in our liberal friends.
{"commentId":3267011,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"AlexandraJolicoeur"}
- 5 votes
{"commentId":3267240,"authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
Alexandra,
Could it be that we lack faith in the ability of the Dems to play fair because they have a track record to prove otherwise? Remember, in Wisconsin, because of their lax voting regulations, homeless individuals were given cigarettes, etc. for voting, by the Dems. I'm not sure, but is this at all related to those ACORN individuals convicted of fraud? Does anyone know?
{"commentId":3267240,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
- 6 votes
{"commentId":3267415,"authorDomain":"AlexandraJolicoeur"}
conserv-
yeah, that could be some of it. for me it's also because the chairs of the DNC (currently Dean and formerly MacAuliffe) are slippery snakes, and if their party loves/supports them, what does it say about the party as a whole?
{"commentId":3267415,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"AlexandraJolicoeur"}
- 6 votes
{"commentId":3267489,"authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
Well we all know that Dean is nuts. Who can forget his crazy rantings after he lost his bid for the White House. Remember that primal scream (lol). It still makes me laugh (lol). I'm surprised he was even allowed to be the chair of the party, he, he, he.
{"commentId":3267489,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
- 6 votes
{"commentId":3267502,"authorDomain":"bcmadden1025"}
Alexandra:
While I would hope that all people voting would be "informed and concerned" - there is no requirement like that for people to have the right to vote. I've known people my whole life that never paid attention to any election and walked into the polls and pulled every republican lever. Finally, as for the homeless, I dare say that some of todays homeless were not homeless 4 years ago...
{"commentId":3267502,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"bcmadden1025"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":3261415,"authorDomain":"schnoo"}
'I can't vote for him because he's not of my ethnic group,'
Around here I've heard more of "I can't vote for that Osama 'cause he's a Muslin (sic) AND a ni----". Not often, but something very near to that several times.
I'd gauge the group who actually goes out and votes purely negatively against Obama for his color as small. Of course, any small group can swing things in a so-called battleground state.
{"commentId":3261415,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"schnoo"}
- 7 votes
#3 - Thu Oct 2, 2008 1:12 PM EDT{"commentId":3261520,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
Probably due to those hillbillies moving into the Queen City from 'cross the border in South Cackalacky. :)
{"commentId":3261520,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
- 8 votes
{"commentId":3261714,"authorDomain":"schnoo"}
I've been 'most everywhar in this great big country of our'n. And I've been thoughty 'bout this some.
SC overall does takes the prize as the most provincial backwards state in all the land. IMHO, a course.
{"commentId":3261714,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"schnoo"}
- 2 votes
{"commentId":3261816,"authorDomain":"webslinger"}
that's a tough one Schnoo. I lived in Florida for 25 years and found lots of that behavior in the "north" (South Georgia as we used to call it). Now I live in Texas and we've got some winners here too.
Of course, lets not count out Mississippi or Louisiana, there's still plenty of hood wearin folk out yonder o'er thar - boy I tell you whut!
{"commentId":3261816,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"webslinger"}
- 2 votes
{"commentId":3262493,"authorDomain":"JoulesBeef"}
I'd argue those numebrs are larger than you think.. expecially in smaler towns.
{"commentId":3262493,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"JoulesBeef"}
- 2 votes
{"commentId":3263601,"authorDomain":"LonoKemp"}
South Cackalacky
Nice. My mates and I always went with cackalack-a, either way, still makes me laugh hearing it and even more so reading it.
{"commentId":3263601,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"LonoKemp"}
- 2 votes
{"commentId":3261978,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
In the Queen City it's known as the "Rock Hill" effect.
I am off to the Holy City of Richmond now for golf tomorrow with my 'bro. I will check in tonight after the Palin-Biden beauty contest. In my absence I hereby deputize the Schnoo to moderate in my stead --fair and balanced.
{"commentId":3261978,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
- 8 votes
#4 - Thu Oct 2, 2008 1:43 PM EDT{"commentId":3262831,"authorDomain":"schnoo"}
"Fair and balanced" were my confirmation names. Can I delete anyone?
Richmond, eh? Lucky guy.
By May the tenth Richmond had fell, it's a time I remember oh so well.
{"commentId":3262831,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"schnoo"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":3261979,"authorDomain":"dviking12"}
I'd like to think that this year's voter-turnout will be so much higher than the 04 election, that the "Bradley effect" will have a much smaller impact.
{"commentId":3261979,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"dviking12"}
- 2 votes
#5 - Thu Oct 2, 2008 1:43 PM EDT{"commentId":3262068,"authorDomain":"juno"}
We'll see.
I tend to think it is different landscape than what is described in the "Bradley effect."
This article hits on the AP-Yahoo poll, it is worth reading if you haven't already.
As far as I have seen, though, ConservativeVoice is right, a loss will be blamed on racism whether it is or not.
{"commentId":3262068,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"juno"}
- 9 votes
#6 - Thu Oct 2, 2008 1:48 PM EDT{"commentId":3262587,"authorDomain":"JoulesBeef"}
geez.. yeah wtf ever..
every single race is detaield by which groups the people get.. from he jewishj vote.. young white male vote.. we tear this thing apart on every line you can think of.
the gop brings his crap up every single week..as a thinly vieled way to keep race int he election.
hey guess what my prediction is.. mcoldguy will not get the youth vote and if he loses we can blame it on ageism.
yalls manufactured outrage has been noticed.
{"commentId":3262587,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"JoulesBeef"}
- 3 votes
{"commentId":3262681,"authorDomain":"canis"}
Then can we claim that they hate older people and despise women if McCain loses? Seems only fair.
And Beef, I wouldn't count on that "holy grail" of the youth vote. If you know history, then you'll know that the children talk a big talk on campus and go to all the rallys but show up in paltry numbers on election day. Evidently, the act of voting takes too much time away from getting drunk, stoned, or laid. Happens every time...
{"commentId":3262681,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"canis"}
- 6 votes
{"commentId":3263083,"authorDomain":"juno"}
Not outraged, right now, Joules. I do admit to having been so during this cycle, like hearing "they'll try to scare you . . . did I mention I'm black?"
Just making observations based on what I've seen.
{"commentId":3263083,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"juno"}
- 7 votes
{"commentId":3263205,"authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
Juno,
Right again! Thanks for the back-up. Somehow no matter how you state a fact, it gets thrown back in your face.
{"commentId":3263205,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
- 8 votes
{"commentId":3263350,"authorDomain":"canis"}
cv5000,
It's telling that JBeef didn't have an answer for your post #2.2. All I hear are the chirps of little baby crickets in the background.
{"commentId":3263350,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"canis"}
- 7 votes
{"commentId":3264261,"authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
Oh, I'm sure she'll get back to me. She and my friend Arcane always seem to turn back up :-)
{"commentId":3264261,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
- 8 votes
{"commentId":3267472,"authorDomain":"AlexandraJolicoeur"}
yes conserv, but at least arcane is thoughtful. while i almost always disagree with what she writes, she never ticks me off. she's always very reasonable. not so with joules. she's far more the partisan ideologue.
{"commentId":3267472,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"AlexandraJolicoeur"}
- 6 votes
{"commentId":3267692,"authorDomain":"juno"}
Right again!
I admit it, there's a right-nice feeling that comes upon seeing that! : )
{"commentId":3267692,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"juno"}
- 5 votes
{"commentId":3267783,"authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
Alexandra,
Arcane must like you more. We have had a couple of spats. She didn't like something I seeded.
But she was very thoughtful and distinguished on my last seed she visited. So much so I took her off of ignore. :-)
{"commentId":3267783,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
- 3 votes
{"commentId":3284985,"authorDomain":"AlexandraJolicoeur"}
conserv,
i've never really engaged her in a heated debate. There's much she seeds which I don't like, but sometimes I find it a bit boring. I usually don't find her to be rude or attacking, which I find refreshing from someone who is so obviously left. lol, maybe she got the message? Or in a better mood? I know I sometimes get irritated more easily with those on the left than I othewise normally would if I'm not in the best frame of mind.
{"commentId":3284985,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"AlexandraJolicoeur"}
{"commentId":3287923,"authorDomain":"juno"}
Ladies, with respect, personal discussions like this are frowned upon. One or more of those mentioned may find your discouse as an attack.
{"commentId":3287923,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"juno"}
- 3 votes
{"commentId":3314387,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
Thank you Juno. I have been away for a few days and thus unable to moderate here as the computer at my brother's house is too slow for easy NV use. Thank you for reminding everyone that this thread is completely off-topic and should end immediately.
{"commentId":3314387,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
- 3 votes
{"commentId":3334107,"authorDomain":"juno"}
Hope you had fun, Bill!
I like these ladies and don't want to see them get into trouble . . .
Which I know can happen.
{"commentId":3334107,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"juno"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":3263643,"authorDomain":"tylerme721"}
i WAS going to post, i was in LA at the time of this election BUT there is too much venom from pwhitetrsh who try to be a wanna be conservative (and those types will never measure up to being a true conservative) -So i won't sully my words of truth on this matter... i don't think they really want truth...
{"commentId":3263643,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"tylerme721"}
- 1 vote
#7 - Thu Oct 2, 2008 3:12 PM EDT{"commentId":3264364,"authorDomain":"lpwillham"}
I am a white Moderate Democrat. I feel Obama is unqualified to be president. I MUST be a Racist.
My Wife, who is Black, a college professor, and a liberal Democrat, feels Obama isnt qualified to be president, therefore she MUST be Racist.
My Neighbors, who are Gay, Liberal Democrats and have an Adopted Black Child, feel Obama is unqualified to be President, therefore they MUST be Racist
My Neighbor Across the street is 72 , Black, and he not voting for Obama because as he put it "I'd like for the country to still be in one piece when i'm 76", therefore he MUST be a racist too!
Point, people of all walks are not voting for Obama, because they feel he is not the right man for the job!
If, as I suspect, the majority of Americans feel that way on Election Day, the media and the Obamaniacs MUST have a way to explain it. Their mind cannot comprehend that ANYONE, ANYONE could believe Obama lacks the skill, judgement, qualifications or Moral center to be President.
{"commentId":3264364,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"lpwillham"}
- 9 votes
#8 - Thu Oct 2, 2008 3:47 PM EDT{"commentId":3264650,"authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
Like I said above, no matter what the REAL reason, if Obama loses, it will be said that it was because he was black. The only way one could avoid being called a racist, is if they vote for him. So, I guess I'll just have to be a racist, because I disagree with EVERY ideology Obama holds.
{"commentId":3264650,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
- 6 votes
{"commentId":3265329,"authorDomain":"terranceyoung"}
I am a white Moderate Democrat. I feel Obama is unqualified to be president. I MUST be a Racist.
My Wife, who is Black, a college professor, and a liberal Democrat, feels Obama isnt qualified to be president, therefore she MUST be Racist.
My Neighbors, who are Gay, Liberal Democrats and have an Adopted Black Child, feel Obama is unqualified to be President, therefore they MUST be Racist
My Neighbor Across the street is 72 , Black, and he not voting for Obama because as he put it "I'd like for the country to still be in one piece when i'm 76", therefore he MUST be a racist too!
Damn man where do you live ? The set of a reality tv show ? You have possibly the most diverse set of neighbors I have every heard of and none of them are voting for Obama.You my friend live in a slice of America that I can barely picture. Can you do me a favor and ask that very diverse group of folks if they think Palin is qualified to be Vice President ?Let me know what they say please. If they say no remind them that much like your older black neighbor Mr McCain is 72 and I hope he is in one piece in four years.
{"commentId":3265329,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"terranceyoung"}
- 2 votes
{"commentId":3267260,"authorDomain":"AlexandraJolicoeur"}
Hey terrence,
Newsflash- suburbia can be diverse. I myself grew up in a development with liberal and conservative neighbors, elderly neighbors, shut-ins, black families, some indian families and (gasp) even some who are gay. Now, I don't know how everyone voted, and as I no longer live there I don't know how they plan on voting, but the point is, suburbia isn't an all white conservative land.
{"commentId":3267260,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"AlexandraJolicoeur"}
- 5 votes
{"commentId":3267573,"authorDomain":"terranceyoung"}
Alexandria NEWSFLASH, I myself am black. But you must have failed to see this guys assortment of neighbors.
I don't know about you but I have never lived anywhere with an assortment of neighbors like that. And let me give you a list of the places I have lived. Chuchula AL, Mobile AL, Oklahoma City Ok, Lawton OK, Odessa TX, Midland TX, Corpus Christi, TX, Schweinfurt Germany, Lucedale MS, Maryville TN.
No one said suburbia was white conservative land but again I ask you to go back to the list of this guys neighbors and honestly tell me if you have ever seen a neighborhood like his.
{"commentId":3267573,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"terranceyoung"}
{"commentId":3270146,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
Leaving aside questions of neighorhood diversity (film director Mike Nichols said Obama's mixed-race Hyde Park uppie 'hood has always been marked by an attitude best summed up as, "Black and white, arm in arm, in solidarity against the poor." ) the reason I come back to this question is a sociological one of local interest to me as a Virginian.
In '89 when Doug Wilder defeated Marshall Coleman for governor the polls showed him ahead by more than 5% right up until election day but he ended up winning by the barest of margins and his race was every bit as historic for Virginia with its legacy as is Obama's on the national stage. It is my belief that on election night, whichever way you see the Old Dominion going will be a bellwether for the nation at large as regards the winner of this contest. Obama has registered some 250,000 plus new voters in a state Bush carried by only about that same margin in '04. And Virginia is much like OH in that it has several large urban areas that will be predominantly Democratic-leaning on election night but also has large, mostly-white rural areas as well. Will the "Wilder" effect repeat or have we moved well beyond that in twenty years? My guess is the latter but again we'll see a month hence.
Unfortunately due to the near glacial speed of my brother's computer here in Richmond loading NV pages my comments will come less frequently than if I were at home.
{"commentId":3270146,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
- 5 votes
{"commentId":3285344,"authorDomain":"AlexandraJolicoeur"}
terrance, um, yeah- maybe you just read the first line of my post, because I too grew up in a neighborhood (just 10 min outside the capital of NY) where one childhood best friend happened to be black (don't know her parents political afiliation as they moved before I got interested in politics) my other childhood best friend acrosss the street's family was very liberal. So were the ones on either side of them. The was the little old lady up the street on the corner who was the kind who, if you were out and about riding bikes would wave to you, or stop and talk to you if she passed you by on your walk. The next street over included a gay couple, a shut in, and a strange guy who howled at the full moon and called his dog "hey you". Yes, that was the dog's name. And of course, there were a great many families with children- like I said, some black, some Indian/Pakistani, some Asian families. I didn't think of it as such when I was a kid, but looking back on it now my neighborhood was diverse. Until moving to the mountains, the Capital District is the only main place I'd lived. I spent some time in Richmond, LA and Oneonta- where I went to college; but terrence, I cannot believe that my little hometown (which was a village that didnt even have it's own PO when I was little!) is so damn rare. other than Germany, it seems you've lived mostly in the south/ southern mid-west. Maybe you should come to the north?
{"commentId":3285344,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"AlexandraJolicoeur"}
- 4 votes
{"commentId":3265182,"authorDomain":"payingattention"}
I am curious; did the people that have a problem with Obama's race also have a problem with Colin Powell? Do they now have a problem with Condi Rice? After all she is the one meeting with the most important leaders of the world.
{"commentId":3265182,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"payingattention"}
#9 - Thu Oct 2, 2008 4:23 PM EDT{"commentId":3266109,"authorDomain":"juno"}
Having no issue with race, I can't answer your first inquiry.
I love Powell and Rice. Powell's lackluster support for the R ticket irritates me, though.
Rice would have made a great pick, but not this cycle. BDS would have sunk her. And she refused.
JC Watts was on many people's radar too. He is also lackluster in R support though. Saying people shouldn't "count" his vote as R . . .
{"commentId":3266109,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"juno"}
- 5 votes
{"commentId":3265749,"authorDomain":"tishamauro"}
I know that are people that will not vote for Obama because of the issues, but it surprises me how many people I have talked to that won't vote for Obama because he is black. A lot of these people are republicans and would not vote for any democrat so I don't think it will be a major factor. It is shocking never the less.
Based on the way the polls have been moving I don't think the race issue will be a factor this year.
Hopefully.
{"commentId":3265749,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"tishamauro"}
- 1 vote
#10 - Thu Oct 2, 2008 4:49 PM EDT{"commentId":3266746,"authorDomain":"wood-s"}
After reading some of the self pity for poor widdle abused, defamed white Republicans, I feel the need to post a link to <a href=http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/10/02/self_absorption/>this antidote</a> by Glenn Greenwald.
"The Right in this country -- meaning the faction that followed George Bush for the last eight years -- long ago ceased being a movement of political ideas and is driven by two, and only two, extreme emotions: (1) intense, aggressive rage towards their revolving door of enemies, and (2) bottomless self-pity over how unfairly they're being treated. As their imminent defeat looks increasingly likely (potentially on a humiliating scale), these two impulses are in maximum overdrive, feeding off one another in endless self-perpetuation (the more they lose, the more victimized they feel, the more they rage against their enemies who oppress them, etc.).The Right's rejection by the public can't possibly be due to anything they have done. It can only be due to some extremely vicious enemy that oppresses them uniquely and so very unfairly. For the moment, they're only losing because The Leftist Mainstream Media hates them and is deeply biased against them."
{"commentId":3266746,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"wood-s"}
- 3 votes
#11 - Thu Oct 2, 2008 5:42 PM EDT{"commentId":3267197,"authorDomain":"canis"}
Well, gosh, if a guy named Glenn Greenwald wrote it, then it MUST be true!
{"commentId":3267197,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"canis"}
- 5 votes
{"commentId":3267056,"authorDomain":"Bor"}
Hey Bill H.
one for you...
We are lost in the desert!
Tired, thirsty, wounded.
A Fata Morgana (mirage) appears, promises healing for everyone, plenty to drink and ask us to follow it.
A feisty looking Sheppard with scars of experience on his face screams in to our ears, “do not believe it” it is just a dream.
{"commentId":3267056,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"Bor"}
- 5 votes
#12 - Thu Oct 2, 2008 6:02 PM EDT{"commentId":3267292,"authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
BOR,
I like it. :-)
{"commentId":3267292,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"conservativevoice5000"}
- 5 votes
{"commentId":3267580,"authorDomain":"Bor"}
:)
{"commentId":3267580,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"Bor"}
- 4 votes
{"commentId":3267567,"authorDomain":"jazzman646"}
Bill, I put up an article this afternoon on the Bradley effect also.
What the lady who wrote this artcle forgets is that the Bradley effect also include racist voters who may refuse to answer polls rather than have to tell a lie.
{"commentId":3267567,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"jazzman646"}
- 4 votes
#13 - Thu Oct 2, 2008 6:42 PM EDT{"commentId":3269164,"authorDomain":"dbe928"}
Poll bias and interview bias are technical subjects not often explored in the media, but they have a definite effect on poll results. I suspect race is not a big factor among the vast majority of Americans, but experience certainly will be. When people go into the voting booth they are unsure until they cast tehir vote who it will be. That decision, I think, is more visceral than rational and has a lot to do with branding, images, perceptions, recommendations, ads they've seen, and a lot of factors no one can predict that accurately. I also suspect McCain will end up getting many more votes than the polls currently show and Obama many less, but I don't think it's the Bradley effect.
{"commentId":3269164,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"dbe928"}
#14 - Thu Oct 2, 2008 8:53 PM EDT{"commentId":3269236,"authorDomain":"jazzman646"}
I suspect race is not a big factor among the vast majority of Americans
It always amazes me when people play ostrich on the racism issue.
You will never hear an African American make a statement like that, and until you do, we still have a problem.
{"commentId":3269236,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"jazzman646"}
- 1 vote
{"commentId":3270304,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
If you go to pollster.com there's some analysis of this "effect" vis-a-vis the polls and supposedly the big polling organizations were going try somehow to norm for this in the general election but I've not read much on it lately and I'm not sure how one would go about it doing it with any degree of certainty. One of the effects of racial gerrymandering to increase black political representation means that there have been few opportunities to test whether this "effect" has waned any over the years.
{"commentId":3270304,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
- 3 votes
{"commentId":3289177,"authorDomain":"jazzman646"}
Bill,
I don't see how the pollsters could ever claim to be able to give us a valid measurement of the BE.
Some people may openly admit to casting a no black vote.
But most won't.
{"commentId":3289177,"threadId":"375981","contentId":"1946790","authorDomain":"jazzman646"}
- 2 votes
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