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BILL HARRISON
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Member Since: 4/2007
Member Since: 4/2007
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The 'Bradley effect' in 2008
News Type: Opinion — Seeded on Thu Oct 2, 2008 12:23 PM EDT
Article Source: The L.A. Timesadvertisement
"When someone admits, 'I can't vote for him because he's not of my ethnic group,' that's progress, because [candidates] know how to handle it," he said. "And more important, they know how to poll for it."
Are we better off with this devil we know rather than a devil we don't?
I called up Charles Henry, who teaches African American studies at UC Berkeley. In 1983, he was the first to measure the Bradley effect. Yes, perceptions of race are changing, but still, for Obama now, as for Tom Bradley then, Henry calculates that it will take "a double-digit lead to feel confident come election day."
It grieves me to say so, but he may be right. Good polls don't change bad attitudes. If America 2008 hasn't changed much from California 1982, by next year pundits will be calling it the "Obama effect."
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