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BILL HARRISON

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Saudi Rescue in Afghan War? - McCain and Obama Without a Clue?

News Type: Opinion — Seeded on Sat Oct 11, 2008 10:00 AM EDT
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President Hamid Karzai, outward appearances notwithstanding, quietly greenlighted a Saudi initiative designed to explore a face-saving way out for the United States and its allies. So last Sept. 24 through 27, the Saudis quietly hosted a three-way meeting in Mecca, including an Iftar dinner with King Abdullah.

Guests included the Taliban's former foreign minister Wakil Ahmad Mutawakil (who did a stint in the U.S. prison at Bagram Air Force basis near Kabul) and Mullah Mohammad Tayeb Agha, Mullah's Omar's former spokesman; one of president Karzai's brothers; and unnamed ranking Saudis. They then all moved to an undisclosed location in Pakistan for three more days of talks.

A torrent of denials about these secret huddles notwithstanding, the Taliban reps said their break with al-Qaida was irreversible. The catalyst was none other than Nawaz Sharif, the former Pakistani prime minister ousted by then Army Chief Pervez Musharraf in 1999. Sharif then spent seven years in exile in the Saudi kingdom. He's also President Asif Ali Zardari's principal opponent at the top of the Pakistani political establishment.

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{"commentId":3433883,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
Bill Harrison

Needless to say that I do not share Arnaud's enthusiasm for this development although I do believe than neither McCain nor Obama have a clue as to how to go about dealing with this seemingly intractable problem.

{"commentId":3433883,"threadId":"385939","contentId":"1985894","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
  • 1 vote
Reply#1 - Sat Oct 11, 2008 10:07 AM EDT
{"commentId":3436711,"authorDomain":"lprieta"}
twocreeks

I can see that you might well be less than enthusiastic about this development. I too am somewhat skeptical about its chances of quickly ending "major military operations" in Afghanistan. This for two reasons. 1 - It does not play well with American domestic political needs (McCain/Obama "clueless" statement) that utilize "American" [and especially concerning an anal preoccupation with Military] standards of success/"mission accomplished" rhetoric/mythology. There is a strong American tradition that "success" is not mediated as success if doesn't seem to be made in the USA. 2 - This might (domestic/local issues) change under a new administration. It may not. I see the results of the coming election of Obama as a mixed bag (as it should be).
However. One acute statement in the article, "So should the next administration. Before a Taliban Tet against Kabul." is an almost certainty. It is good that "face-saving" is part of the process more or less proceeding via the Saudis. Subtlety is required here, as much as it sticks in the craw of the powers that be and the powers that wannabe (including Taliban). The real probability of an overrunning/siege of Kabul is terrifying and will be unimaginably costly in Afghan/Euro-American lives and humanity and utterly destroy the city and the country. The Saudi initiative could obviate it. Denial will not.

{"commentId":3436711,"threadId":"385939","contentId":"1985894","authorDomain":"lprieta"}
  • 1 vote
Reply#2 - Sat Oct 11, 2008 1:35 PM EDT
{"commentId":3436958,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
Bill Harrison

My own views on the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan are pretty complex but basically they come down to two realizations. One, the primitive state of Afghan civil society and the endemic corruption within it make Iraq look like Bethesda, Maryland. While the Deobandist Taliban are hardly popular from an ideological or governing standpoint for the vast majority of the Pashtuns with the enfeebled Karzai government and NATO unable to provide them much in the way of either economic or physical security it's hardly surprising that they gravitate toward the money offered by the Taliban opium traffickers. Two, so long as Pakistan views the situation in FATA and Afghanistan primarily to using the Taliban as a bulwark against India the situation isn't likely to change. In my view, what's needed is a regional effort to come to grips with this problem which would involve not only the two state players but other interested parties like India, Russia, China and possibly even the Iranians. I hardly think it is in anyone's interest to see Afghanistan revert to the status quo ante that maintained prior to 9/11.

{"commentId":3436958,"threadId":"385939","contentId":"1985894","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
  • 2 votes
#2.1 - Sat Oct 11, 2008 1:50 PM EDT
{"commentId":3445334,"authorDomain":"Roybean"}
Judge-574295

Bill, you are not making a scarce hope more plausible by looking to Iran or Russia as having any reason to make it easier on the US and Nato in Afghanistan.

Obama, once clear of the election and what seems like a political necessity for him to feed his irrational left with the idea that he alone has discovered that Pakistan is part of the intractability, I can only hope that he can't help but sound more intelligent about that war than he has. Up to now, the left has claimed that Pakistan's imperfect democracy has been the problem,  and that problem solved with the resurection of the Bhuto clan, we need only sit back and let democracy solve the problem. Even as we are told that democracy building is not worth the effort in Iraq.

I am not sure that Obama's cardboard saber has anyone rattled.

Now as to the Saudis, does their diplomatic package include reducing the funding to radical madrasses in Pakistan and elsewhere, in this newfound desire to make the world more peaceful?

I trust the Saudis as far as I can throw a camel.

{"commentId":3445334,"threadId":"385939","contentId":"1985894","authorDomain":"Roybean"}
  • 1 vote
#2.2 - Sun Oct 12, 2008 2:44 AM EDT
{"commentId":3447060,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
Bill Harrison

Oh make no mistake about it, I do not trust the Saudis good offices here and I think Arnaud, whom I admire greatly, has diagnosed the malady but offers the wrong remedy. But I also believe that the only way out of this morass is to look at the situation realistically and that will require approaching the problem posed by FATA and Pakistan from a larger regional perspective as is suggested today by a cogent piece in the WaPo.

{"commentId":3447060,"threadId":"385939","contentId":"1985894","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
  • 1 vote
#2.3 - Sun Oct 12, 2008 10:20 AM EDT
{"commentId":3451070,"authorDomain":"Roybean"}
Judge-574295

"We need a stern, serious international effort -- led by the United States -- to put Pakistan back together again, reform its institutions and reorder its priorities."

Yes. Don't we.

It might begin with either of these two candidates in the US admitting that the problem is deeper than the correct pronunciation of a couple of carefully rehearsed  Pakistani names.

{"commentId":3451070,"threadId":"385939","contentId":"1985894","authorDomain":"Roybean"}
    #2.4 - Sun Oct 12, 2008 5:13 PM EDT
    {"commentId":3453184,"authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
    Bill Harrison

    It's really rather pathetic. Both guys striking macho poses about "getting" bin Laden which even if he was "gotten" would make little material difference insofar as the greater situation is concerned other than as a propaganda victory although it would be a satisfying one. As Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank's excellent The Unraveling makes clear, bin Ladenism's appeal to the larger Muslim world has declined dramatically over the past six years due to the cruelty exhibited in Iraq. But at the same time, if Afghanistan were allowed to slip back into complete chaos we would be back where we were on September 10th and that is not a good thing. And my fear is that the followers of Hamid Gul are once again gaining leverage in Pakistan. The ISI was connected to the bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul and I wouldn't be surprised if they were connected to Mrs. Bhutto's killing as well as the bombing of the Marriott.

    {"commentId":3453184,"threadId":"385939","contentId":"1985894","authorDomain":"wharrison55"}
    • 2 votes
    #2.5 - Sun Oct 12, 2008 8:54 PM EDT
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